Earlier this week, Matt Simonini wrote about how moving from the NL to the AL hurts pitchers' performance. In the post, Matt showed how Josh Beckett's statistics from his final season with the Florida Marlins were better than his first season with the Boston Red Sox.
From my perspective, it doesn't matter if a pitcher jumps from the AL to NL or the NL to AL. Switching leagues benefits the pitcher immediately. Batters in the opposing league have likely never faced this pitcher before and have absolutely no idea what they are about to see. All pitchers are scouted by teams, but watching film and mental reps cannot prepare you as well as stepping in there and taking some pitches.
AL to NL
The exemplary pitcher used for jumping from the AL to the NL is none other than the recent 300 game winner himself, Randy Johnson. In 1998 with the Seattle Mariners (AL), Randy Johnson went 9-10 with a 4.33 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and a 3.5:1 K/BB ratio. In the same year, Randy Johnson finished his second half of the season going 10-1, 1.28 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 4.5:1 K/BB with the Houston Astros (NL). In 1999 Randy pitched his first full season in the National League with the Arizona Diamondbacks (just to show it wasn't a fluke), going 17-9, 2.48 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 5.2:1 K/BB.
NL to AL
In only his second major league season in 1989, Randy Johnson went 0-4, 6.67 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, 1:1 K/BB with the Montreal Expos (NL). In 1989 Randy Johnson finished his second half of the season 7-9, 4.40 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 1.5:1 K/BB with the Seattle Mariners (AL). Not to say that his numbers were great with his initial start with the Mariners, but they were much better than what he had done in the NL in 1989. In his second season in the AL with Seattle, Johnson went 14-11, 3.65 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 1.6:1 K/BB and also made his first All-Star appearance.
Benefits From Switching Leagues
Moving from one league to the next gives a pitcher a new opportunity to face batters that have never seen him before. Switching leagues also gives a pitcher that sense of urgency to prove the skeptics wrong and show them they've still got what it takes to be an effective major league pitcher.
Though it's a small sample size, Randy Johnson shows that switching leagues is effective and absolutely beneficial for the pitcher. Using the same pitcher switching from each league to the other keeps the pitcher constant in the experiment. Although Randy Johnson was much older when he switched from the AL to NL, it still shows that he pitched better in the year and a half in the newer league than he had done previously with the original team he had opened the season for.
Statistics from Baseball-Reference.com
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{ 8 comments… read them below or add one }
Good post.
All these articles are showing is that you have to have absolutely nasty stuff to have a low ERA in the AL. Giving up hits potentially leads to runs, so a high WHIP leads to giving up runs. Johnson’s AL/NL average ERA (each totaling 12 yrs) was .70 lower in the NL. His WHIP was 0.142 lower in the NL than the AL. This just shows that switching from the AL to NL or NL to AL will see a shift in numbers up and down each way.
Having that extra hitter in the lineup for the AL makes it tough on pitchers and their statistics. If a relatively good starting pitcher wants to have a relatively low ERA then maybe he should pitch in the NL. I’m not saying that low ERA aren’t possible in the AL, just tougher to attain.
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So, the bigger question becomes, is a pitcher’s legacy defined by his individual stats, or his contributions to the team?
If a pitcher leaves a bad team in one league, to go to a top team in another league, and his individual numbers drop but he wins a World Series or two, do the championships help his legacy and eventual Hall of Fame bid or hurt him?
In my opinion World Series rings are one of the most important parts of any players’ legacy. In the long run, it’ll help him by winning championships.
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AL to NL is automatic that you’ll be better. Clemens on roids in Houston was better than he was on roids in the AL East pitching for the Yankees. Don’t forget hitters study tape on pitchers just as much as the other way around. The Randy Johnson example is kind of skewed because he was young and wild in Montreal.. he was just coming into his own as a pitcher when he got to Seattle. Good post though.
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Another fantastic example is C.C. Sabathia, who went from a mediocre Cy Young follow-up in Cleveland in 2008 to immediate Cy Young and MVP talk after switching to the Brewers a year ago.
Still, I’m sure there are lots of examples of things going the other way around as well, but certainly the unfamiliarity of having not seen a pitcher gives an immediate boost to any one changing leagues.
Great post!
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C.C. is a great example. His stats would also show the correlation for one constant pitcher switching back and forth in both leagues in such a short amount of time. C.C. Sabathia on baseball-reference
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How about Beckett helping his own cause in trying to get the win today with that home run!
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Interesting theory, though I’m wondering what other factors might be involved in a pitcher’s performance gain. For example, your point about Randy Johnson is well-taken, but his improvement could be the result of his maturation and development, his pitching coach, the ballpark he was pitching in, etc. Plenty of pitchers (e.g., Sandy Koufax) have made a dramatic improvement after a couple of disappointing years in the majors.
And for every Randy Johnson who switches leagues and does well, is there also a pitcher who digresses? I don’t know the answer to that, but it would be curious to see those sorts of stats to give this theory some context.
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Yes there are some pitchers that have also switched leagues and not done so well, majority NL to AL pitchers.
More often than not, whichever league a pitcher switches to, they do extremely well their first season because the batters have never faced them before and don’t know what to expect. Even more fascinating is the fact that the numbers are explosive in showing pitchers that are in the AL are much better when they switch to the NL where there is no DH and more small ball played than in the AL.
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